ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR EVALUATING SKEENA AND NASS HARVEST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND SIMULATION MODEL DOCUMENTATION

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada has a requirement to develop analytical tools, technical documentation and communication materials for evaluating alternative harvest strategies for domestic and international fisheries. The work will involve the following: The goal of this project is to develop analytical tools, technical documentation and communication materials for evaluating alternative harvest strategies for domestic and international fisheries, which will allow decision makers to identify plausible options for updated catch sharing provisions for sockeye salmon harvested in Northern Boundary area fisheries. This contract will support the Canadian Northern Panel to develop new options for international harvest sharing agreements concerning Canadian-origin Skeena and Nass sockeye, which are harvested in commercial fisheries targeting pink salmon in southern Southeast Alaska. While some of these fisheries are subject to provisions described in the 2019 revision of the Pacific Salmon Treaty, the vast majority of Canadian sockeye harvested in Alaskan fisheries are currently caught outside times and areas that are subject to these Treaty provisions. The focus of technical work for 2024-2026 will be to identify, implement, and summarize revisions to a harvest model component of an existing simulation model, in order to use simulation analysis explore fisheries benefits and conservation risks associated with different fishing patterns and harvest rules under different run size and productivity scenarios. The Contractor will develop an updated harvest model to explore alternatives to the current provisions, including limits to the total Alaska harvest of Canadian origin sockeye using simulation evaluation. A working group comprised of Northern Panel and Northern Boundary Technical Committee leads, and DFO scientists, will work with the Contractor to identify a suite of scenarios to evaluate using an updated harvest model. The Contractor will perform the analytical work, including R programming, required to adapt and run the updated model with the scenarios selected by the working group. Simulation model outputs will be summarized and communicated to Northern Panel members in a series of handouts and presentations. The Contractor will contribute to the development of a technical report describing the simulation model including the updated harvest model and initial settings and parameters. The model code will be shared with DFO scientists in a Git repository and training on model operation will be provided to North Coast DFO staff.