Background Information:Models are routinely used to guide public policy decisions in many areas that affect human life and health. Environmental regulations and demographic forecasting are two areas where models have gained stature as policy tools. The purpose of this project is to create a network of modelers who are already active in the area of developing mathematical models to project population outcomes and evaluate the effect of interventions and policies that impact the prevalence of childhood obesity. The Childhood Obesity Modeling Network (COMNet) will use the success of another network as its guide: the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). CISNET is a consortium of investigators funded by the National Cancer Institute, all of whom have developed models to improve our understanding of the impact of cancer control interventions (e.g., prevention, screening treatment) on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. In addition to examining past trends, these models are also used to project future trends in order to project the outcomes associated with various cancer control strategies. COMNet is the first attempt to our knowledge to develop such a consortium focused on this area. One of the most important advantages of having a consortium of modelers all working on similar questions is the ability to employ a comparative modeling approach, where a common question is developed and addressed by all models in order to compare results across models. For these types of collaborations, a set of common inputs is used across all models and a common set of intermediate and final outputs is developed to help understand differences and similarities across models. Results from comparative modeling studies lend credibility to model results by providing a form of sensitivity analysis on the model assumptions and structure adopted by independent working groups. Another advantage of a modeling consortium is the ability to share ideas about underlying modeling assumptions, as well as to bring in experts in specific areas to guide the discussions. The success of this type of approach has been shown with CISNET (www.cisnet.cancer.gov). Purpose: The main focus of the Network will be to improve a and validate the use of mathematical models to project population outcomes and evaluate the effect of interventions and policies that impact the prevalence of childhood obesity. Most of the focus will be on the United States experience but we will also draw on experiences and models in other countries (e.g. Australia). We will construct models for the total population, as well as models for subpopulations. For example, we will examine models for males and females. There has been growing concern about growing disparities in rates of obesity in the United States, and we will examine models defined by gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic position, and examine their assumptions and applicability. One of the important issues we need to understand is the potential diifferences in longer term outcomes of obesity (e.g. diabetes incidence and overall morbidity, mortality and functional status as it may vary across populations and ecologic settings). Scope of Work: It is the intent of the NIH/ Office of Behavioral and Social Science Research to provide funding to the Harvard School of Public Health in exchange for the products and services described in this noticet. So that this work may be completed in its entirety, additional monies will be provided from other sources. Harvard will establish and nurture the Childhood Obesity Modeling Network (COMNet). The following tasks will be accomplished under this contract: ? Confirm members of COMNet ? Confirm members of an Advisory Group ? Plan and conduct two face-to-face scientific meetings of members of COMNet in each of FY 2007 and FY2008. ? Each of the above scientific meetings will be a working meeting in which the COMNet participants discuss their proposed, in process, and past childhood obesity modeling work with invited scientists, and with the Advisory Group members. The communication between the COMNet participants and the Advisory Group, invited scientists and others present at the meeting is expected to be two-way, such that the modeling groups with both present their work and receive comments on it. ? When each of the various modeling groups have accomplished significant pieces of their work (e.g., conceptual mapping, simulations, revision of the models? parameters), these groups will present their work to all attendees at the scientific meetings. ? The first meeting will be held June 28-29, 2007 in Boston, MA at the Harvard School of Public Health. ? All work funded under this contract (including but not limited to conceptual models, data and parameters on which models are run and tested, simulation results) will belong to the Federal Government and made available to the public via electronic means and will be referred to and announced on NIH and other government websites. Proposed Content of Meetings: Harvard will hold two in-person meetings per year as well as approximately four teleconferences per year for purposes of planning the COMNet meetings and following up on meeting activities. Notes of the in-person meetings will be posted along with presentations of the modeling groups on-line, accessible only to members and advisory board members. We will hold teleconferences with Advisory Board members in-between the in-person meetings to review progress and solicit advice. Advisory Board members are invited (but not required) to attend in-person meetings. Harvard personnel plan to accomplish several goals at the in-person meetings which will each take place over 1.5 days. First, each group will present the details of their modeling approach for purposes of enhancing model transparency across groups. This process will be valuable and should make clear potential differences across model structures and assumptions. Second a small number of comparative modeling studies for all groups to engage in will be identified. For example, all models could start with a cohort of children of a specified age and then follow them until adulthood to compare BMI projections under various scenarios (e.g., status quo vs increased energy expenditure scenario). These activities will take place during day one of the meeting. The next half day of meeting time will be used for consultations from experts (see below), as well as planning for future meetings and consultants and for development of questions and issues for the Advisory Group. A first meeting to take place in Boson on June 28-29, 2007 is already planned. This meeting time has been confirmed by the four modeling groups as well as Dr. Dietz and Dr. Mabry. Potential COMNet Participants COMNet will consist of Consortium Members, as well as members of the Advisory Group. We will also be meeting with collaborators with expertise to assist in developing and validating the models. The COMNet members are all experienced modeling groups that are now actively working to model the obesity epidemic. Recent publications and presentations (Homer et al 2006; Levy et al 2005; Swinburn et al 2006; Wang et al 2006) describe some of the models and approaches that are currently being used. The proposed acquisition will be procured under FAR Part 13 - Simplified Acquisition. This is not a Request for Quotation (RFQ), nor is an RFQ available, however, all responsive sources may submit a proposal in a timely manner which will be considered by NIH. Firms interested in responding to the notice must be able to provide the referenced products and services as specified above. Responses must be be received by 4PM EDT on May 30, 2007. Responses must include pricing information and should reference Special Notice No. NLM 07-0119/SB. Inquires regarding this procurement may be made to Sally Boakye, Contract Specialist, NLM on (301) 496-6546 or at boakyes@mail.nih.gov.
