B--Tall Building Earthquake Study

Tall Building Earthquake Study: HayWired Scenario: Tall Building Performance I. GENERAL INFORMATION A. Introduction: The USGS is currently working on the HayWired scenario, an earthquake on the Hayward fault, in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA. New emphases for this earthquake scenario include liquefaction and landslide probability estimates, considerations of an aftershock sequence, ¿safe enough¿ building codes, lifeline restoration interdependencies, community recovery, and impacts to the digital economy. Similar to previous scenarios, the policy implications will be identified by experts. B. Background: The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) uses hazards science to improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and enhanced resiliency. The first public product of the former Multi-hazard Demonstration Project (MHDP) (now SAFRR) was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. In January 2011, the USGS released its next major public project, a next-generation winter storm scenario (ARkStorm). This new scenario defined in some detail a large, hypothetical, but realistic event similar to the storms that struck California in 1861 and 1862. While adequate historical evidence existed to verify the scope and severity of those events, it was insufficient for the needs of scientists, engineers, sociologists, and economists to estimate in detail the costs and other consequences of a 21st Century repetition of those storms. In September 2013, the SAFRR tsunami scenario was released in time for exercises in recognition of the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Great Alaskan and Good Friday earthquake. The scenario also informed ¿Recommendations for Improving California¿s Policy Framework for Tsunamis¿ released in California¿s Tsunami Risk: A Call for Action Report. The tsunami scenario, an event triggered by a M9 far-field earthquake source in the Aleutian Islands evaluated damages to critical infrastructure (e.g. the San Pedro ports) and coastal communities and economic consequences in California. II. PURPOSE: The purpose of a tall building analysis is to address the following two questions: 1) How will a hypothetical ~40 story reinforced concrete building designed using a performance-based approach for the seismic demands in San Francisco perform in an earthquake such as the HayWired scenario mainshock? 2) How will an existing tall steel moment frame office building (1970¿s era) that is representative of a significant portion of the building stock in downtown San Francisco perform in an earthquake such as the HayWired scenario mainshock? ¿ Building performance will be considered in the downtown areas of San Francisco and Oakland. Building performance will be measured as damage, downtime (in terms of the time required to achieve re-occupancy and regain functionality), and repair costs due to damage. III. STATEMENT OF NEED: The HayWired project currently uses FEMA¿s Hazus-MH tool to estimate building damages to the existing building inventory. The project also provides analyses of building tagging if structures were built to the building code and to 1.5 times the building code. Neither of these analyses is specific to the performance of the current stock of tall buildings in the downtown areas of Oakland and San Francisco. Tall buildings respond differently than shorter buildings and deserve to be treated accordingly. A defensible analysis of tall building performance needs to be provided by experts who have a vetted model. This model needs to be able to estimate the tall building damage levels, downtime, and repair costs for the HayWired scenario. IV. DELIVERABLES: The USGS will provide 1. Peak ground velocity for the HayWired scenario mainshock in census tracts of the two downtown areas (Data is publicly available from the earthquake scenario site: ) 2. Displacement, velocity, and acceleration time histories of ground motion in the two downtown areas and associated response spectra. (Public access to this data will be granted.) 3. Information on lifeline service restoration. (The HayWired scenario project will share information once approved by the review panel.) The contractor will deliver to the USGS: 1. Tall building model outputs of building damages, downtime, and repair costs for a single HayWired mainshock scenario earthquake for a concrete and steel moment frame tall building types situated in downtown San Francisco and downtown Oakland census tracts. These outputs will be presented in an excel spreadsheet or table. 2. A report describing a vetted tall building performance model, model assumptions, model outputs, and a comparison of tall building performance between the two cities in a word document. 3. A revised report that reconciles peer and panel reviews. V. SUPPORTING INFORMATION 1. The need to use a HAZUS expert that has a working relationship with FEMA¿s team and is familiar with the SAFRR scenario development process. 2. Tentative start date: September 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016. 3. Contractor will not require access to USGS IT systems 4. Format of the Deliverables are to be received in word and excel files and databases 5. The contractor will not share reports before publication. Interested parties will submit an email detailing their capabilities and experience with these services. Sufficient information must be provided to demonstrate the ability to complete the services. This is not a request for quotation or an announcement of a solicitation. Responses will be used for market research only. Responses are due no later than 08/05/2016 1300 EDT. Response must be submitted to Stewart Evans by email at contact@example.gov. Place of performance is: Contractor's Facility POC: Stewart Evans +1 (555) 000-0000 or contact@example.gov