Consequences of Execution (CofE) Needs

This is a SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE; there is no solicitation available at this time. No response will be provided to requests for solicitation. THIS SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE IS PUBLISHED FOR MARKET RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is interested in understanding second and third-order effects due to a nuclear weapon detonation. These effects go beyond the first-order damage due to blast, thermal, and radiation in the aftermath of a nuclear detonation. Specifically, DTRA is interested in modeling the follow-on effects (beyond the first-order) on existing infrastructure networks both physical and non-physical. Skills and expertise are sought in the following topic areas: 1. Modeling disruption and dynamic response of large natural gas networks; 2. Modeling disruption and dynamic response of petroleum supply networks; 3. Modeling disruption and dynamic response of water/sewage line networks; 4. Modeling supply and support of agriculture networks (food and non-potable water); 5. Cascading/congestive effect modeling with multiple time scales; 6. Data sensitivity, including gaps in data and uncertainty analysis; 7. Modeling of supervisory control (SCADA) actions (human and autonomous) and communication systems; Disruption and dynamic response of large natural gas networks: Critical energy infrastructures (CEIs) such as piped natural gas systems provide fuel for the continuous and reliable functioning of the power networks, vehicle mobility and heat. These gas systems in turn provide national and regional security, economic operations, public health and safety. The disruption or loss of functionality of these infrastructures could be detrimental to quality of life, but most importantly, to the national defense and economic security of a country of interest. CEI systems are increasingly interconnected and interdependent with other critical infrastructure systems such as power grids, and are controlled through SCADA-styled controls. Disruption and dynamic response of petroleum supply networks: A similar approach and interdependency as the one described for gas networks is applicable to petroleum supply (trucked, railed, piped). Water and sewage network supply/support modeling: The water/sewage network model also includes alternatives to piped systems, such as wells, streams, and rivers. Agriculture network supply/support modeling: While food and non-potable water supply are heavily dependent upon other critical infrastructure networks. Both food and irrigation (non-potable water meant for farming, transportation, and fishing) network models are diverse in nature and include the transmission, distribution, and growth of the agriculture for food base. Cascading/congestive effect modeling within multiple time scales: Multilayer network models subjected to weapons effects can evolve over orders of magnitude in time. The time dependence of integrated networks is dependent on the time-evolution within any given network layer, and can create complex emergent phenomena. Although congestive and cascading effects are challenging to model for any single layer network, characterizing complex, time-dependent network behavior in response to large-damage scenarios presents unique computational and modeling challenges. Data sensitivity, including gaps in data and uncertainty analysis: The integration of data and information into real-time now-casting and forecast planning tools requires special consideration of data type and class for proper model functionality. Modeling of supervisory control (SCADA) actions (human and autonomous) and communication systems: Communications channel network modeling for remote monitoring and supervisory control of generic critical infrastructure networks is required for realistic simulation of local/global control of infrastructure. Such models are necessary for the response modeling of a disrupted critical infrastructure system of systems. Likewise non-SCADA controls such as fuses/breakers and human in the loop controls are also required for realistic modeling. Sources having the capability and/or concept to meet these requirements are invited to respond to this notice. Written responses should not exceed three (3) single-spaced 8.5" by 11" pages, not including cover page, cover letter and table of contents. Any proprietary concepts of information should be clearly identified as such. Submitted data and information will not be returned. Any information submitted in response to this Sources Sought Notice is strictly voluntary. This notice is for information planning purposes and the Government will not pay or otherwise reimburse respondents for information submitted. Electronic responses are required and shall be submitted to Dr. Lisa Andivahis, lisa.m.andivahis.civ@mail.mil. All emails should include in the subject line the Reference Number and the submitting organization's name. All documentation shall become the property of the Government. There is no commitment by the Government to issue a solicitation, to make award or awards, or to be responsible for any monies expended by any interested parties in support of any effort in response to this Sources Sought Notice. Information provided herein is subject to change and in no way binds the Government to solicit or award a contract. For more information please contact Dr. Lisa Andivahis, lisa.m.andivahis.civ@mail.mil. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.