Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research Scientific Solutions

Note! Any requests for clarification must be received no later than 12 June 2014, 1200 MDT (noon). The RFI is also attached. REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI) RFI-AFRL-RVKVB-NEMS-FY15 Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research Scientific Solutions Dated: 13 May 2014 THIS IS A REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ONLY as defined in FAR 15.201(e). This RFI is issued solely for information and planning purposes. It does not constitute a solicitation or a promise to issue a solicitation in the future. This RFI is not a request for proposals; therefore, responses to this notice are not considered offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. This RFI does not commit the Government to contract for any supply or service whatsoever. 1.CONTRACTING OFFICE ADDRESS AND POINTS OF CONTACT (POC) Address Department of the Air Force, Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Space Vehicles Directorate Contracting Division, AFRL Det 8/RVKVB, 3550 Aberdeen Ave. SE, Bldg 590, Kirtland AFB NM, 87117-5776. Technical POC 1. Senior Scientist, Dr. G. Eli Baker; Glenn.Baker.3@us.af.mil 2. Senior Scientist, Dr. Frederick R. Schult; Frederick.Schult@us.af.mil Contracting POC 1. Contracting Specialist, Jennifer B. Jaramillo; Jennifer.Jaramillo@us.af.mil 2. Contracting Officer, Francis M. Eggert; Francis.Eggert@us.af.mil NOTE: See paragraph 5 on how to request clarifications. 2. GENERAL INFORMATION THIS IS A REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ONLY (RFI) as defined in FAR 15.201(e). This RFI is issued solely for information and planning purposes. It does not constitute a solicitation or a promise to issue a solicitation in the future. This RFI is not a request for proposals; therefore responses to this notice are not considered offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. This RFI does not commit the Government to contract for any supply or service whatsoever. Respondents will not be paid for the information submitted. All information received in response to this RFI that is marked PROPRIETARY will be handled accordingly. The Government shall not be liable for or suffer any consequential damages for any proprietary information not properly identified. Proprietary information will be safeguarded in accordance with the applicable Government regulations. Proprietary information or trade secrets should be clearly identified and portion marked. DO NOT SUBMIT CLASSIFIED INFORMATION. The Air Force will not be obligated to pursue any particular acquisition alternative as a result of this RFI. Responses to the RFI will not be returned. 3. GENERAL INTENT a. Background The Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate Battlespace Environment Center (AFRL/RVBY) would like to investigate scientific solutions to Nuclear Explosion Monitoring (NEM) problems with improving regional and local seismic discrimination and yield estimation, improving structural models of the earth for seismic attenuation & velocity and for full seismic waveform modeling, improving methods of collecting location and discrimination ground truth for seismic events, improving seismic signal processing for seismic detection, location and discrimination, and understanding seismic source physics of explosions and other events such as earthquakes that may improve seismic discrimination. Such solutions would require scientific studies of the type published in scientific journals with presentation at scientific meetings and peer review throughout the process. b. Approach The primary goal of this RFI is to obtain information on potential scientific solutions for these challenges. c. Description Government Objective: AFRL/RVBY requests brief summaries of potential scientific solutions for problems in seismic source physics, discrimination and yield estimation, earth models of attenuation, velocity and full waveforms, ground truth for discrimination and location, and data processing. For each of these categories, possible examples of scientific solutions follow. Summaries of scientific solutions are welcomed on these or in other research directions. Seismic Source Physics: Generally, new ways to improve predictions of source generation of seismic signals, from all shallow source types, that may be used for discrimination and/or yield estimation. Ways to improve physical understanding of the dependence of seismic source generation on explosion emplacement conditions (depth, scaled depth, decoupling, material properties, pre-stress, and local structure), especially for small seismic events. Hypothesis tests of proposed mechanisms for anomalous waveform characteristics, e.g. larger surface waves than predicted for explosions. Distinguishing between feasible source mechanisms. Methods of determining depth to within 10s of meters for shallow events. Partitioning of energy into P, S, and surface waves, and understanding of the higher frequencies that may be critical for local discrimination, and methods that can discriminate chemical from nuclear explosions. Summaries may include one or multiple approaches, and may include analysis of existing nuclear and chemical explosion records, theoretical investigations, and/or numerical simulations. Discrimination and Yield Estimation: Ways to improve the accuracy of existing discriminants and estimates of their uncertainty or that develop new discriminants that have a firm physical and statistical basis. Ways to provide new understanding of the properties of small seismic events and their seismic waveforms at local (200 km or less) and regional (2,000 km or less) distances. Extensions of existing regional discriminants to smaller, locally recorded events. Development of new discriminants that take advantage of the characteristics of small locally recorded events, with rigorous assessments of performance and uncertainty. Methods for estimating yield of seismic events recorded at local distances with low uncertainty. At regional distances, improving event characterization of smaller events as well as improving understanding of uncertainties. Methods to improve the accuracy of source characterization by moment tensors and their uncertainties, and new understanding of their limitations. Attenuation and Full Waveform Earth Models: Ways to improve the prediction of waveforms and amplitudes at local and regional distances. In particular, local and regional attenuation models, with emphasis on their ability to match observed amplitudes of Pn, Pg, Sn, and Lg phases, their codas, and surface waves; assessment of the extent and effects of censoring and application of appropriate methods to address censoring; new methods for measuring attenuation; models that fit multiple datasets (e.g. body wave and surface wave amplitudes), if the potential to improve predictions that affect discrimination can be shown; and methods that utilize full waveforms and finite-frequency methods. In all cases, a robust estimate of uncertainty is an important consideration (confidence, resolution, and variance). Velocity Earth Models: Ways to develop advanced models of the Earth's velocity structure that will improve location capability. In particular, (1) P-wave velocity structure studies and studies of poorly calibrated regions within Eurasia; (2) new techniques of determining 3-D, spatially variable velocity models; (3) new techniques for building models by fitting multiple datasets, especially of different types of data, if the potential to improve predictions that affect location can be shown; (4) techniques to estimate the uncertainty in geophysical models and assess the tradeoffs between different parameters of the models, as well as the uncertainty (confidence, resolution, and variance) in predicted observables, such as travel times; (5) new techniques for determining velocity structure in aseismic regions; (6) studies that compare different methods to show their strengths and weaknesses; and models that can predict structural effects on seismic amplitudes at 1 Hz and higher as well as travel times. Solutions utilizing full waveforms and finite-frequency methods. Techniques for accurately predicting P-wave travel times from surface wave based models. Location and Discrimination Ground Truth: Solutions to improve the collection of calibration events at a GT5 level (absolute location and depth errors less than 5 kilometers) or better in uncalibrated or very poorly calibrated areas. Studies that generate new discrimination calibration events, along with source geometry and other characterizing information. Accurate estimates of depth and origin time and their uncertainties are potentially important for location calibration events. Improved techniques for event location using models and/or ground truth at local, regional or near-teleseismic distances, particularly methods that use more than a single type of data jointly. Robust estimation of uncertainty is an important consideration. Data Processing: New and innovative signal processing methods for data from local (less than 200 km) and regional (less than 2,000 km) distances that significantly lower the thresholds at which detection, location and identification functions can be performed at an acceptable false alarm rate. Solutions that are tuning studies, either of specific arrays or of techniques in general, are not scientific in nature. These options are presented to allow responders to assess potential approaches and scientific risks and costs. d. Response Interested parties should provide a statement of interest on company letterhead and include the following information: (1) Potential solution to meet one of the Government objectives; (2) Scientific plan of study; (3) Time phased research plan (schedule); (4) Rough order of magnitude cost estimate correlated to schedule; (5) Premises and assumptions; and (6) Risk assessment. Alternate options and feedback are invited, along with corresponding technical merits, risk, schedule requirements and costs. 4. REQUESTED RESPONSE, FORMAT, & SUBMISSION Responses must be unclassified and any proprietary information provided must be portion marked accordingly. To protect such data, each line or paragraph on the pages containing such data must be specifically identified and marked with a legend similar to the following: "The following contains proprietary information that (name of Responder) requests not be released to persons outside of the Government, except for the purposes of review and evaluation." a. Format & Page Limitation Submitted responses may be provided on standard letter size 8-1/2 by 11 inch paper, preferably limited to three (3), single-sided, single-spaced pages. The font for text is suggested to be Times New Roman 12-point or larger. The Responder may use oversized pages (including "foldouts") where appropriate to contain graphic presentations. Oversized pages do not count as extra pages. Existing commercial documentation and product literature can also be submitted and is not subject to a page limitation. Please submit an original and three (3) copies of your response. b. Submission of Documentation Documentation may be delivered by mail and received NLT 25 June 2014, 1200 MDT (noon) to the Contracting Office at the following address: AFRL Det 8/RVKVB ATTN: Mr. Frank Eggert 3550 Aberdeen Ave. SE, Bldg. 570 Kirtland AFB NM 87117 Telephone: 505-846-7603 E-mail: Francis.Eggert@us.af.mil An email copy would also be helpful, although confirming receipt of the email would be important because the security fire wall will often truncate messages, strip attachments or block email. 5. REQUESTS FOR CLARIFICATION A Responder may request clarification in writing to the Contracting Office for any of this Request for Information that is unclear by sending an e-mail to the Contract Officer as identified above. Any requests for clarification must be received no later than 12 June 2014, 1200 MDT (noon). Clarifications may be posted on the RFI announcement website to benefit all interested Responders. Interested Responders are encouraged to periodically check the website during the response period for clarifications. 6. DISCLAIMER This is a Request for Information (RFI) only as defined in FAR 15.201(e) to obtain information about capabilities and market information related to the technology of interest for planning purposes. This RFI is not a request for competitive proposals; therefore, responses to this notice are not considered offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. Companies that respond will not be paid for the information submitted. No telephone calls will be accepted requesting a bid package or solicitation. All information received shall be safeguarded from unauthorized disclosure. Responses must be unclassified and any proprietary information provided must be marked accordingly. 7. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION All responsible sources may submit information in response to this RFI. The Government is not required to provide feedback to RFI responders. Direct all inquiries to the Contracting Points of Contact listed in the Requests for Clarification / Points of Contact paragraph.