OUI support

The Division of Contract Services (DCS), on behalf of the Department of Labor / Employment and Training Administration (ETA), intends to award a Sole Source contract under the authority of FAR 6.302-1 - Only One Responsible Source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements, to St. Louis and Associates. The Unemployment Insurance (UI) system, as established by the Social Security Act of 1935, is a unique Federal-state system grounded in Federal law, but executed in its relationship to the employer and to the unemployed worker through state law. Federal law provides the broad parameters for the program and individual state laws establish specific financing and benefit payment structures. The Office of Unemployment Insurance (OUI) of the U.S. Department of Labor is the Federal partner in the system. Its role is one of overall oversight and coordination, including ensuring conformity of state laws to Federal requirements, measurement of state performance, and providing for the administrative expenses of the program. The Division of Fiscal and Actuarial Services (DFAS) in conjunction with the Division of Performance Management (DPM) of the OUI have several responsibilities in the UI system. Some of the most important are: providing technical assistance to states on benefit financing and profiling, producing budget and legislative estimates and analyses, monitoring Federal trust fund accounts, publishing statistical reports, providing for administrative financing, overseeing state program performance, and providing technical expertise and statistical and analytical support for OUI initiatives. The objective of this project is to provide the OUI needed support in carrying out its responsibilities: Budget and Legislative Analysis 1. The contractor shall maintain, monitor and improve computer models used to make Federal budget and legislative estimates. The contractor will have responsibility for the revenue and state loan model, which makes state-by-state projections of tax rates, fund balances, loans, etc. The contractor will also have responsibility for the STUBEN regular benefits model, the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) model and the Extended Benefits (EB) model. The contractor shall use these models to make budget and legislative estimates as required. Model equations must be reviewed and updated annually. The contractor shall review and assess alternative techniques and methodologies for modeling and projecting key UI program variables. All model changes must be documented. 2. The contractor shall produce actuarial calculations on a monthly and quarterly basis for the DOL financial statements. These include estimated UTF disbursements for all programs, due and payable accruals for all programs, and existing claims accruals for Federal UI programs. The contractor shall also produce information annually for the Required Supplemental Information attachment to the financial statements, including 10-year projections of UTF balances under various economic scenarios and an assessment of state trust fund solvency. Profiling Model Technical Assistance 3. The contractor shall assist DFAS in providing technical assistance and support to states and Regional Offices in developing, implementing, maintaining and updating statistical models or characteristic screening systems for identifying claimants likely to exhaust benefits. Technical assistance will be performed either via telephone or on-site, as determined by the COR. Technical assistance will include: identifying and analyzing state data sources and elements, determining model specifications and estimating model coefficients These tasks will be done either in coordination with state staff, for integrating the econometric model into existing UI software systems, or with Regional Office staff in reviewing and assessing state profiling systems. Trust Fund Forecasting Technical Assistance 4. As needed, the contractor shall work with DFAS staff to provide support to SWAs in the task of forecasting UI trust fund balances using the BFM. This task entails developing and maintaining various UI-related regression equations used in the simulation models, modeling new state UI laws, collecting and setting up numerous input data files, running simulations under various economic scenarios, and providing technical support to state users. The contractor may also be required to assist in developing a prototype Excel version of the BFM. 5. The contractor shall produce a single one-week Benefit Financing Seminar during the project period, for approximately thirty participants from SWAs. Topics will include: UI cost and revenue forecasting, UI tax structures, experience rating, measuring trust fund solvency, Title XII loans, and basic statistical methods. Hands-on use of the BFM will be emphasized. The contractor shall provide all training materials and supplies and will coordinate logistics. Contract staff shall prepare presentations jointly with Federal staff. The COR will determine seminar dates and specific course content. Reports 6. The contractor shall prepare a quarterly publication, the UI Data Summary, which provides a detailed comparison of the status of states with respect to unemployment rates, benefit payment activities, revenues, and trust fund reserves. The publication shall be made available both in hard copy and on the OUI website. The contractor shall maintain and document routines used to extract data, manipulate data, and produce the report. The contractor shall respond to requests for data related to this report or other UI data from researchers, Congressional staff, etc. 7. The contractor shall publish official five-year UI projections and Federal and state trust fund account status in the UI Outlook. These projections are updated twice a year in conjunction with the Federal budget process. The publication shall be made available both via email and on the OUI website. Routines and spreadsheets must be documented. 8. The contractor shall produce annual estimates of the CY 2017 amounts of FUTA taxes paid by employers in each state and compile data on the amounts returned to the states for administration and benefits. The contractor shall publish these data on the OUI website. 9. The contractor shall compute as required, state fund adequacy measures such as the Average High Cost Multiple and perform analyses of these measures as required. The contractor shall publish these data in a form determined by the COR. Performance Management 10. Conduct data analysis that may be necessary for the implementation of strategies in the comprehensive strategic plan. 11. Assist in determining which recommendations from the BAM Methodology Evaluation study can be implemented and identify any limitations discovered as part of the data analysis. 12. After the review of the recommendations, develop plans and business requirements for the implementation. 13. Develop regression models for implementing new integrity-related performance measures. 14. Assist with the development of methodologies to determine appropriate targets for performance measures. 15. Develop presentation material on plans for implementation of recommendations. 16. Review the current Program Performance and determine if the current system should be enhanced based on current processes. This data analysis should look at all facets of the BAM program and determine which processes need to be improved. 17. Review all reporting mechanisms, forms and the tools used to determine if any corrections or changes need to be made. This action will result in a Time and Material type contract with a twenty six (26) month period of performance. This notice of intent to award a Sole Source contract is not a request for competitive proposals. There is no solicitation document. No RFP will be available for competitive proposals. Phone calls will not be accepted. The anticipated award date is January 5, 2018.