This publication serves as a notice of intent to negotiate a sole source contract with QEDA Consulting LLC for biological simulation models for evaluating the potential effects of water project operations and habitat restoration on the dynamics of Chinook salmon populations in California's Central Valley. NMFS-SWFSC is developing simulation models to evaluate the potential effects of water project operations and habitat restoration on the dynamics of Chinook salmon populations in California's Central Valley. These life cycle models (LCMs) couple water planning models (CALSIM II), physical models (HEC-RAS, DSM2, DSM2-PTM, USBR river temperature model, etc.) and Chinook salmon life cycle models (a modification of SHIRAZ; a framework for integrated analysis of habitat, hatchery, and harvest impacts on salmon; that allows for density dependent survival and migration) to predict how various salmon populations will respond to suites of management actions, including changes to flow and export regimes, modification of water extraction facilities, and large-scale habitat restoration. Under this requirement, the contractor must: 1. Develop, verify, fit (calibrate), and validate the life cycle models: Adapting the winter run life cycle model to spring-run and fall-runs. The salmon life cycle is represented by a number of stages, including developmental stage and age (egg, fry, smolts, ocean juvenile, and adult) and spatial location (e.g., river, flooded bypass, delta, bay, ocean and possibly hatchery). Transitions among these stages are governed by Beverton-Holt functions, the parameters of which will generally be functions of habitat quantity and quality (as characterized by outputs of various physical models of the system). Adapt the existing LCM to other populations and questions, which requires identifying new functional relationships, estimating the values of the parameters of these relationships from appropriate data, including an enhanced particle tracking model, and implementing the mathematical representation of the LCM as a computer code. The contractor shall work with project staff on these areas; participate in biweekly conference calls to discuss proposed LCM specifications and modifications; conduct data analysis and computer programming; and present information about model development to technical audiences. Parameter estimation and model coding shall use the programming language R. The R code shall take advantage of the RODBC package to interface with a SQL database of model parameters, input data and outputs being developed by NMFS. 2. Run scenarios through the model and analyze results. Fishery and water resource managers wish to use the LCMs to investigate how particular management actions affect populations, and therefore NMFS requires the contractor to work with the project manager, fishery, and water resource managers to develop various detailed management scenarios for analysis using the LCMs and associated physical sub-models. The contractor shall run the LCMs and associated physical sub-models as necessary, to model up to 20 scenarios, and produce reports describing the results of the model analyses. 3. Perform adaptive model development. The development of models is an iterative process. As new information/data becomes available, the contractor will work with project staff to modify the LCMs to include the most relevant and up-to-date information. QEDA Consulting LLC is the only vendor with the breadth of knowledge and technical experience in developing quantitative salmon life cycle models for Central Valley, California. Therefore, it is proposed that a sole-source contract be negotiated with QEDA Consulting LLC for biological simulation models for evaluating the potential effects of water project operations and habitat restoration on the dynamics of Chinook salmon populations in California's Central Valley. The Government intends to negotiate a firm fixed price contract with the period of performance commencing approximately January 1, 2017 with three one-year option periods. The NAICS code for this procurement is 541712 with a corresponding size standard of 1000 employees. This notice represents the only official notice of this solicitation. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals; however, all submittals received by the due set forth in this notice will be considered by the Government. A determination by the Government not to compete this requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. It is the Government's belief that only Guam Fishermen's Cooperative Association can provide these items. However, other potential sources with the expertise and required capabilities to provide these services may submit such data which demonstrates the technical requirements stated above in duplicate no later than 10 calendar days from the date of the posting of this announcement. This data must include sufficient information to allow NOAA to evaluate the proposal relative to the technical requirements stated above. Offerors should include a description of significant collaboration and subcontracting that will be required to provide technically acceptable deliverables. No cost or pricing data is required. Responses shall be faxed to Heather Proctor at (206)526-4549 or provided by e-mail to Heather.Proctor@NOAA.gov. The secondary point of contact is Kate Steff at 206.527.6940 or Kate.R.Steff@NOAA.gov. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION. A redacted Justification for Other Than Full & Open Competition (JOFOC) is attached.
