99 -- Development of Short-Range Stochastic Projection Model

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) plans to award a sole source contract to James M. Robinson, Ph.D., F.S.A., of the University of Wisconsin’s Center for Health Systems Research & Analysis to develop a Short Range Stochastic Projection Model for the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund. Dr. Robinson brings a unique combination of expertise, holding a Ph.D. in statistics and fellowship status with the Society of Actuaries, and has extensive experience with statistical analysis in income-security plans and health care insurance using stochastic methods. His deep understanding of Medicare’s financial operations, along with his familiarity with existing actuarial projection techniques and stochastic methodologies, positions him as the only candidate capable of efficiently completing this project without a significant learning curve. This contract, identified under solicitation number Reference-Number-732-2-419201, will be awarded through Simplified Acquisition Procedures, contingent upon the absence of any affirmative written responses within 45 calendar days from the notice publication date. The contract aims to enhance the Office of the Actuary’s tools by developing a stochastic modeling approach tailored to the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund’s short-range projections, building on the existing deterministic models and stochastic methods used for related trust funds. This initiative underscores the importance of specialized actuarial and statistical knowledge in managing Medicare’s financial projections.