Decision Theory Framework for Menu Extrapolation

A subcontract opportunity has been issued by NASA Shared Services Center under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to develop a decision-theoretic model that extrapolates shelf-life predictions from a limited set of 24 space food items to a full menu of over 200 items. The model must account for uncertainty in degradation rates, varying levels of risk tolerance, and the impact of mission duration diversity to ensure reliable food safety and nutritional adequacy across extended space missions. The effort is targeted at small businesses as a total SBA set-aside under NAICS code 541690, and proposals are due by August 11, 2026. Performance will be based in Houston, Texas, with the work focused on advancing predictive capabilities for long-duration spaceflight meal planning using rigorous analytical frameworks grounded in decision theory.