Developing a Neutral Density Monitoring and Alert Service for satellite operators.

In Phase II, Ensemble plans to develop an analytics service with the output of NOAA’s Whole Atmosphere Model-Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (WAM-IPE) model, making it more accessible and useful for satellite operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. This phase is focused on the demonstration and evaluation of commercial potential for improved SSA decision-making with five objectives: 1) Customization of Density Output: Development of API services for operators to input or select satellite trajectory data, enabling customized neutral density outputs. This includes saving input parameters and accessing data essential for orbit propagation and flight control; 2) Enhanced 48 Hour Forecasting: Incorporating the model's forecasting output for up to 48 hours lead time to aid operational planning; 3) Validation of Model Outputs: Rigorous comparison with industry standards and measurements to validate the model’s accuracy and reliability in collaboration with SWx TREC; 4) Quantification of Output Uncertainty: Analyzing forecast variance to provide error margins and confidence intervals, enhancing the model's reliability for users; 5) User Interface Improvements: Upgrading the interface to ensure easy access to model forecasts, SSA insights, and uncertainty quantification through a dashboard and REST API. These steps aim to refine the model output into a more potent tool for the space industry, offering reliable insights for operational planning. With a world-class team including CU Boulder’s SWx-TREC, Ensemble shall demonstrate the value of functionalized space weather data for commercial space services. The anticipated results include the development of tailored insights and improved operational decision-making based on the space weather driven operational environments faced by commercial satellite operators and space situational awareness providers (SSA). Additionally, the proposed validation against industry standards and measurements will foster greater confidence among users in WAM-IPE’s capabilities. Finally, the enhanced user interface will facilitate easier access to model forecasts, space weather insights, and uncertainty quantification, improving the usability of the model for operational planning. The implications of this work include protecting orbital assets, reducing risks associated with space weather events, and increasing revenue for the commercial satellite industry. This research has many potential commercial applications and benefits.