GLOBAL FORECASTING OF EARTH’S ELECTRON RADIATION BELTS WITH DATA ASSIMILATION

Accurately nowcasting and forecasting the near-Earth space radiation environment is critical to mitigate risk to our space-based assets and NASA’s near-Earth space missions. Precise forecasting requires detailed knowledge of the current state of the radiation belts, a robust physics-based forward propagation model, accurate forecasting of model input parameters and model driving parameters, as well as exhaustive confidence tracking to evaluate the uncertainties. There are no US-based capabilities that currently provide global nowcasts and forecasts of energetic particle conditions encountered by spacecraft within Earth’s magnetosphere. Space Science Innovations (SSI) has an existing data assimilative physics-based model, and is capable of transitioning to real-time nowcasting and forecasting that meet all of the above requirements. Specifically, this work will improve upon an existing electron radiation belt model to provide accurate predictions and nowcasts of the global outer radiation belt electron space environment, aid in spacecraft anomaly resolution, and assist spacecraft operators. The proposed work leverages a well-validated physics-based data assimilative code, the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt 3D code (VERB-3D). After more than 15 years developing the code, the group at SSI has developed a framework for historical reconstruction that has high-performance metrics. The proposed work will develop a proof-of-concept nowcast and forecast product that will provide actionable predictions for space weather situation awareness of the global electron environment in near-Earth space. These capabilities will allow for real-time prediction of spacecraft environmental risks that can be offered to stakeholders as actionable data products. Target markets include NASA/CCMC for R2O2R advancement and as well as the private sector for mission operations.
Benefits: The proposed work perfectly bridges the “valley of death” gap that exists between advancing physical understanding and the improvement of operational products. The prediction model is physics-based, refined over more than 15 years of research incorporating accurate magnetospheric physics processes. The proposed work will transition the state-of-the-art physical model into an operational model. The resulting forecast can be tailored to specific operator needs and incorporated into the CCMC for distribution to NASA and/or broader public stakeholders. Space-weather events can result in hazards to space-based assets, including spacecraft and astronauts. Additionally, they can effect ground-based technologies and infrastructure, and can disrupt communications, navigation, and electrical power subsystems. NASA’s goals focus on improving the understanding of space weather phenomena to enable monitoring, prediction, and mitigation capabilities. The proposed work will create a high-quality prediction of magnetospheric energetic electron conditions that are capable of affecting orbiting spacecraft. The global nowcast and forecast of energetic electrons in Earth’s magnetosphere can be used by spacecraft operators to mitigate space weather hazards to their assets. Furthermore, the model can directly aid in spacecraft-anomaly resolution by providing detailed environmental conditions experienced during the anomaly, including surface charging and deep dielectric charging events. The goal to provide higher-quality predictions of the magnetosphere, in particular for radiation effects caused by space weather in near-Earth space, directly supports NASA’s role within the SWORM Working Group. In particular, it advances NASA’s Space Weather Program, which expands the role in space-weather science under a single element, and is consistent with the NRC Decadal Survey, the OSTP/SWORM NSWSAP, and the PRWOSIFT Act, and is crucial for the successful operations of the NASA SOMD. Space-weather events can result in hazards to commercial space-based assets. Additionally, they can effect ground-based technologies and infrastructure, and can disrupt both public and private communications, navigation, and electrical power subsystems. The proposed work will create a high-quality prediction of magnetospheric energetic electron conditions that are capable of affecting orbiting spacecraft. The global nowcast and forecast of energetic electrons in Earth’s magnetosphere can be used by spacecraft operators to mitigate space weather hazards to their assets. Furthermore, the model can directly aid in spacecraft-anomaly resolution by providing detailed environmental conditions experienced during the anomaly, including surface charging and deep dielectric charging events. Commercialization opportunities for the proposed work include the private sector with goals that require environmental risk mitigation that include monitoring and prediction capabilities. The market includes private spacecraft operators, such as Boeing, Amazon, SES, Aerospace Corp., Airbus, Digital Globe, Lockheed Martin, and AER; the SSI team plans on leveraging existing contacts in all these companies. The forecast model is flexible to user needs. Customers will be able to use the output of the forecast directly, or subscribe to tailored warnings for predictions of fluences, surface charging, or other customized data products. Of particular interest will be the Phase II capability to fly individual spacecraft through the forecasted environment to get space weather predictions at the individual spacecraft level, allowing operators to make informed decisions about radiation mitigation at potentially the sub-system level.