Improved Forecasting of Operational Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

This Improved Forecasting of Operational Solar and Geomagnetic Indices (SGI) work will significantly improve existing operational thermospheric density forecasts that are applicable to low Earth orbit (LEO) space traffic management. This work will build upon results from new SGI forecast algorithms for the solar S10 and geomagnetic Dst indices that match or outperform existing forecasting methods. Those improvements, when added to operations, will expand redundancy, bolster resiliency, and enhance accuracy in the resulting thermosphere densities in LEO. This work will test those improvements in an operationally relevant environment as they are transitioned from technology readiness level (TRL) 6 to TRL 8. The redundant S10 index will use the National Solar Observatory (NSO) ADAPT algorithm to obtain this solar irradiance index forecast out to 7 days using solar source surface magnetic information, adding physical information to the forecast beyond what is currently done with simple linear predictive techniques. The improved Dst forecast applies machine learning (ML) for the 6-day and 2-day forecasts by using ACE or DSCVR solar wind information and by using solar images. This University of Colorado set of algorithms substantially improves the 6-hour forecast and will replace the existing Anemomilos Dst output now provided plus offer uncertainty assessment. The probabilistic 2-day forecast will inform issue/no issue decisions for the Anemomilos Dst, which is used operationally. Direct users of the advances include NASA Conjunction Analysis Risk Assessment (CARA), USSF 18thSDS, Department of Commerce (DoC) Office of Space Commerce (OSC), and commercial LEO satellite operators. This forecast of Dst will also be made available for community assessment through the NASA CCMC CME Scoreboard with an automated upload capability to be developed. This work will significantly improve existing operational thermospheric density forecasts applicable to low Earth orbit (LEO) space traffic management. This work: builds upon new solar and geomagnetic forecast algorithms for solar S10 & geomagnetic Dst indices; matches or outperforms existing forecast index drivers of thermosphere density models; expands redundancy, resiliency, and accuracy in resulting LEO thermosphere densities; will test those improvements in an operationally relevant environment; will use the National Solar Observatory (NSO) ADAPT S10 forecast out to 7 days; will use the improved University of Colorado Dst forecast based on machine learning (ML) for the 6-day and 2-day forecasts by using ACE or DSCVR solar wind information and solar images; will substantially improve the 6-hour forecast and will replace the existing operational Anemomilos Dst output now used plus will offer uncertainty assessment; and will provide a probabilistic 2-day forecast to inform issue/no issue decisions for the operational Dst. This work has two main technical objectives: Validate improvements to operational forecast solar and geomagnetic drivers producing predicted thermosphere densities from 6-hours to multiple days affecting satellite drag and test these solar S10 and geomagnetic Dst forecast drivers in an operationally relevant system. In addition, we will make geomagnetic Dst forecasts available to the NASA CCMC CME Scoreboard so a broader community can independently evaluate the quality of the forecasts in producing disturbances to the coupled Earth magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. The deliverables are: Collect, insert NSO S10 forecast data into database; Collect, insert CUB 6-hour and 2-day forecast Dst data into database; Validate NSO S10 forecast data; Validate CUB 6-hour, 2-day forecast Dst data; Build NSO S10 forecast overlay with SET S10; Build CUB 6-hour and 2-day Dst forecast overlay with Anemomilos Dst; Integrate NSO S10 forecasts into operational server; Integrate CUB 6-hour, 2-day Dst forecasts into operational server; Demonstrate successful use of NSO S10 forecasts in TRL 8 operations; Demonstrate successful use of CUB 6-hour and 2-day Dst forecasts in TRL 8 operations; Complete satellite propagation analysis; and Demonstrate automatic feed of Dst predictions to CCMC CME Scoreboard.
Benefits: This work supports NASA’s Grand Challenges to i) solve important space-related problems; ii) radically improve existing capabilities; or iii) deliver new space capabilities. For Challenge 1 (expand human space presence), this work helps mitigate space debris collision hazards by improving the USSF HASDM thermospheric density forecasting system used by NASA’s Conjunction Analysis Risk Assessment (CARA) group. This work directly supports the solicitation for research that advances operational and commercial space-weather science and technology. There are 4 use cases for improved solar and geomagnetic driver forecasts: i) defense domain awareness, ii) civilian agency satellite operators, iii) commercial satellite operators, and iv) international space traffic management. Growth occurs in each area because of the tremendous expansion of the number of active satellites in LEO necessitating an improved ability to mitigate collision hazards.