Modeling to Support Seasonal Sub-monthly to Seasonal Predictions of Anomalous Sea Levels

NOTICE OF INTENT TO NEGOTIATE A SOLE-SOURCE CONTRACT The US Department of Commerce (DOC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Eastern Acquisition Division (EAD), Simplified Acquisition Branch intends to negotiate on a sole source basis with Applied Climatologists, Inc., 896 Banyan Ct., Marco Island, FL 34145, using the procedures in FAR Part 13, to provide services to identify and model atmospheric and oceanic conditions and events (circulation, winds, storms) to develop predictions and resilience metrics of coastal inundation for NOAA sites and other high priority areas. Work includes developing predictions of anomalous sea levels and other flood hazard metrics at our test sites from one week to six months in advance. The sea level predictions shall include the difference in mean sea level relative to established linear sea level trends, seasonal cycles and tide predictions (i.e. the meteorologically-forced sea-level anomaly). The flood hazard metrics shall include sets of weather and ocean risk patterns, hindcast and forecast prototypes of coastal inundation and flood hazard probabilities, and other forecast visualization tools. NOAA-managed areas along US coasts are facing multiple climate-related sea-level rise threats and impacts: coastal floods of terrestrial and oceanic origin, storm surge, and heavy precipitation events are affecting critical infrastructure and facilities, water resources, ecosystems, and habitats. Understanding long-term regional weather patterns and forcing contributing to these threats is vital for tracking and preparing for future hazard risk, maintaining healthy, resilient coastal marine habitats and nature- based shorelines. In this 1-year pilot study, the Contractor shall assess the role of several physical atmospheric and oceanic drivers that influence regional anomalous sea levels that can be scaled to local coastal community flood hazard metrics, thus informing climate adaptation and resilience efforts at these scales. Modeling and forecasting at these scales shall facilitate the development of consistent and reliable coastal resilience metrics, portable to other locations and high priority areas in future work. The statutory authority for other than full and open competition is FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i), Only one responsible source. The North American Industry Classification Code (NAICS) for this acquisition is 541620 with a business size standard of $16.5M. This is not a solicitation for competitive quotes. However, if any other interested party believes that it can meet the requirements, it may submit a statement of capabilities, which if timely received, will be considered by NOAA. A statement of capabilities must be received by 11:00am (CST), September 7, 2022 will be considered by the Government. A determination by the Government not to compete this proposed requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. Information received will normally be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement in the future. Evidence must be provided of ability to provide the required services. The capability statement and any other information furnished must be in writing, and must contain material in sufficient detail to allow NOAA to determine if the party can meet all of the foregoing requirements. Capability statements and related materials must be e-mailed to nicholas.j.deguire@noaa.gov by 11:00am (CST), September 7, 2022.