Policy Design and Scenario Analysis for Phased Implementation

The contract seeks a detailed comparative analysis of the adopted NZF framework against alternative policy designs and phased implementation scenarios, with a primary focus on evaluating economic impacts under a No Action baseline. The work involves assessing how different implementation pathways influence market stability, industry adaptation, and system transitions, with the goal of identifying the most viable and least disruptive approach. The analysis must include rigorous scenario modeling, economic forecasting, and risk assessment to support evidence-based recommendations. Recommendations must be grounded in practical safeguards designed to mitigate unintended economic consequences, such as supply chain shocks, workforce displacement, or competitive imbalances, particularly during transitional phases. The analysis is to be delivered to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration in Washington, D.C., with submissions due by June 3, 2026. This subcontract falls under NAICS code 541690, indicating a focus on other scientific and technical consulting services, and is intended to inform high-level policy decisions that align transportation strategy with long-term economic resilience.