Threat Forecasting

Threat Forecasting Request for Information (RFI) March 2022 This is a Request for Information (RFI) synopsis. This Request for Information (RFI) is issued solely for informational and planning purposes and does not constitute a solicitation. This RFI is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a commitment by the Government to procure any items/services, or for the Government to pay for the information received. This is NOT a request for Quotations or Proposals. No solicitation document exists and formal solicitation may or may not be issued by the Government as a result of the responses to this RFI. The Government will not reimburse costs incurred by respondents in response to this RFI regarding details of the RFI. Interested parties are responsible for adequately marking proprietary or competition sensitive information contained in their response. The Government encourages teaming/partnering. In accordance with FAR 15.202 (e), responses to this notice are not offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. Background After nearly two decades fighting the Global War on Terror, the Army is pivoting to prepare for large scale combat operations against near-peer or peer threats. To successfully transition from the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan to potential large scale combat operations, the Army published a new operating concept, Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). Intelligence has long been a multi-domain warfighting function, integrating and synchronizing collection from all domains, to support situational understanding and decision-making across echelons. But, the shift to large scale combat operations requires commanders to see farther and act faster than ever before. Technology gaps exist today that will inhibit the Army's modernization priorities from realizing their full potential in the multi-domain operating environment. Enhanced analytic capabilities that will enable the Intelligence Warfighting Function (IWF) to handle growing amounts of data in order to make more timely and accurate assessments are critical to the modernization effort. Description U.S. Army Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C5ISR) Center, Engineering System Integration (ESI) Directorate is conducting this RFI to determine potential capability and innovative approaches for forecasting threat courses of action (COA) and locations of high-value targets (HVT) in order to develop and prioritize Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) collection requirements. Objective: Describe new, existing, and/or enhancements of capabilities to achieve the following objectives: Develop software tools to enhance war gaming capabilities; automatically generate and update most likely and most dangerous threat COA based on known threat tactics techniques and procedures (TTPs), terrain, collected intelligence, sensor data, and Blue Force COAs. As part of the development of possible threat COAs, identify Decision Points (DP) when and where threat forces must make key decisions that affect future COAs. Identify indicators and prioritize ISR collection requirements that will maximize intelligence gain to confirm, deny, or refine forecasted threat COAs. Predict current and future locations of HVTs by analyzing threat characteristics, TTPs, past events, and terrain. Develop tools to continuously update threat forecasts based on newly collected data and information. The descriptions should address the following concerns. Integration into the Army's Command Post Computing Environment (CPCE) Human-machine teaming Building trust in analytic results Operation across echelons with varying amounts of computing resources, bandwidth, and Size, Weight, and Power (SWAP) constraints. Generation or collection of data required for development, test, and evaluation Testing and evaluation in live and virtual environments Response We are asking industry to provide a response to this RFI that includes: Provide a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate for the effort per year for four (4) years. Propose a commercial software licensing approach that minimizes license management costs and leverages Government off-the-shelves (GOTS) and Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) products availability under DoD enterprise license vehicles. Articulate how your solution applies to the Army Intelligence process and collection planning cycle at various echelons. Describe the risk areas from a cost, schedule and technical approach with your rationale. Responses to this RFI are to be unclassified and received no later than 45 days after date of release. All interested parties shall respond in as clear manner as possible to each of the areas listed above. Information is preferred in soft-copy form in Microsoft Word and shall not exceed 15 pages. If a softcopy cannot be provided, written information will be accepted no later than seven (7) days after due date. You may forward your Unclassified responses via email to: brian.s.townsend6.civ@army.mil; Subject Line: Threat Forecasting RFI. All information must be in writing or via email; telephone requests for additional information will not be honored. Acknowledgement of receipt will be issued. If you choose to submit proprietary information, mark it accordingly. Classified information will be accepted by mail only, but please mark it accordingly and send it via proper channels. Classified information can be sent to US Army, DEVCOM, C5ISR, ESI, 6565 Surveillance Loop Bldg. 6003, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, 21005, ATTN: Security Office. The inner wrapping shall be addressed to: ATTN: FCDD-ISE-GGD (Mr. Michael Pellicano).