B--Analysis of Fuel Patterns and Trends in the US Transportation Sector

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ), intends to negotiate, on a sole source basis, under the authority of FAR 6.302-1, with Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). The Transportation and Climate Division (TCD) of the U.S. EPA is responsible for understanding and analyzing current greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and energy consumption trends, and alternative vehicle and fuel pathways in the U.S. transportation sector. Part of this effort involves developing an understanding and analysis of the U.S. transportation fuel consumption patterns and trends, as well as the GHG emissions and U.S. energy security implications of various transportation sector policies. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) has a variety of tools and methodologies to assist the U.S. EPA in studying fuel patterns and trends in the U.S. transportation sector, and how U.S. transportation fuel use interacts with global transportation fuel markets. Some of the sources of U.S. transportation fuels include: conventional petroleum, heavy oil production, gas-related liquids, unconventional liquids (e.g., oil sands), and renewable fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. In addition to understanding market trends, CERA also has the capability to analyze global refining capacity changes from various U.S. transportation sector fuels policies on a country-level basis and look at the changing mix of refined products across a variety of regions across the globe. Besides looking at fuel market trends, CERA also has the capability to conduct lifecycle GHG emission analysis for specific fuel types by region, allowing EPA to conduct a GHG emission comparison analysis of different transportation fuels. The work is to consist of the following: The Contractor shall work with the U.S. EPA to answer detailed, specific, policy-oriented questions about the U.S. transportation fuel market and its interaction with global fuels markets. Included in these analyses should be an assessment of global fuel demand and supply, the impacts of various future trends on the U.S. and global refinery sectors, and lifecycle GHG emissions. Examples of the types of questions that EPA could pose include, but are not limited to: (1) effects on global transportation fuel demand and production as OECD countries? fuel demand peaks and developing countries? demand increases into the future; (2) determining the marginal source of transportation fuel replaced as the U.S. expands its consumption of petroleum substitutes, such as renewable fuels; (3) analyzing the GHG emission impacts from the global petroleum refining sector as the U.S., or other countries, change their demand for transportation fuel; and (4), other scenarios as identified as a result of a preliminary analysis. The Contractor will conduct analyses of the U.S. and global transportation fuels market tailored specifically to EPA?s questions/scenarios. Technical directives will be given to the Contractor specifying the types of analyses the Contractor shall undertake. The Contractor will provide the analysis in a form acceptable to EPA, and may consist of spreadsheets and/or briefing packages. The Contractor shall work with the U.S. EPA to develop specific analyses regarding the production and consumption of crude oil developed from Canadian oil sands. Examples of the types of analyses that could be requested include, but are not limited to: (1) on the production side, one particular focus of these analyses could be estimating the lifecycle GHG emissions from various production pathway possibilities for petroleum-derived from oil sands; (2) on the demand side, identifying countries that are likely to import and consume petroleum produced from oil sands as U.S. consumption levels vary; (3) determining the global refining sector impacts from increased Canadian oil sands production and how this is dependent on different import and global consumption patterns; and (4), other scenarios as identified as a result of a preliminary analysis. The Contractor will conduct analyses of Canadian oil sands production tailored specifically to EPA?s questions/scenarios. Technical directives will be given to the Contractor specifying the types of analyses the Contractor shall undertake. The Contractor will provide the analyses in a form acceptable to EPA, and may consist of spreadsheets and/or briefing packages. IHS CERA will include EPA as a member in the Canadian Oil Sands Energy Dialogue, which provides a platform for stakeholders to engage in the formation of a transparent analysis of the benefits, costs, and impacts of various choices associated with oil sands development. This IHS CERA Energy Dialogue provides an objective and independent research agenda delivering balanced information on the factors that will drive or inhibit future growth in the Canadian Oil Sands. The Dialogue program will address how the future of Canadian oil sands, and resulting GHG emissions, might be impacted by four critical issues: (1) The role of oil sands in United States energy supply; (2) lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions; (3) latest technology in oil sands; (4) greenhouse gas policies. Over the course of the Canadian Oil Sands Energy Dialogue, IHS CERA will deliver four cycles of research comprised of member meetings and special reports. This is not a request for proposal. However, any firm believing itself capable of meeting EPA's requirement may submit technical documentation to establish the potential of complying with the specifications. Such documentation must be submitted to the point of contact within 15 days of the posting of this notice. A determination not to compete the proposed requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. Information received will normally be considered only for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement or to proceed on a sole source basis. The applicable NAICS code is 541380 Please submit your request in writing to: US EPA, David Boris at 26 W. Martin Luther King Dr, Cincinnati, OH, 45268 or fax your request to +1 (555) 000-0000, or email contact@example.gov. No telephone request will be honored.