B -- Analysis of the Impacts of Water Resource Management Choices in Ceara, Brazil

This is a special notice as the Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) intends to negotiate a single source purchase order using Simplified Acquisition procedures with the Columbia University, New York, NY, under the authority of 41 U.S.C. 253c(1) as implemented by FAR 6.302-1, Federal Acquisition Circular (FAC) 2005 -07. The NOAA Climate Program Office seeks to acquire technical support services for the analysis of the Impacts of Water Resource Management Choices in Ceara, Brazil (see the following Statement of Work). The period of performance for this requirement is expected to be one year and the budgeted amount is $26,000. Based on prior NOAA market research, conducted, Columbia University is the only source holding the unique combination of experience, skills, and abilities to analyze the Impacts of Water Resource Management Choices in Ceara, Brazil. Notwithstanding the Government's intent to negotiate this requirement with Columbia University, under the authority of 41 USC253(c)(1), responsible sources may submit a statement of qualifications which, if timely received, will be considered by NOAA. Responses must be received by March 28, 2006. Responses may be faxed to (301) 713-0806 or e-mailed to sandra.shaffner@noaa.gov. ..........Statement of Work.......... PURPOSE The NOAA, Office of Global Programs requires assistance with coordinating the analysis of the Companhia de Gest'o dos Recursos Hidricos (COGERH) database to estimate the numbers within each user group in this region, and estimate levels of water use. Also on quantitative inference from the Finan database on rained agriculturalists to extract the lessons usable for impacts on rained of water management policies as well as the possible effects of long-run development policies to lower vulnerability through employment in urban centers. In particular the analysis of the data concerning the pilot experiments in water policy already conducted, including the Aguas do Vale experiments, and the design and analysis of a specialized sub-survey concerning willingness to pay for water. TASKS The contractor will design the broadly implemented survey of user characteristics, activities, and responses to shocks to anticipated and actual water availability (the responses part of the survey will also benefit from an expert). Coordination of the quantitative inference from databases and surveys together that inform the Decision Support (DS) tool will generate simulated outcomes of interest for relevant water policy scenarios. The contractor will coordinate the hydrologic analysis of the existing Ceara, Brazil, reservoir and water supply system, following on work done jointly with Assis Filho at Fundao Cearense de Meteorlogia e Recursos Hidricos (FUNCEME). This is a crucial element in the DS tool if we are to address Policy 1 - - The basing of reservoir releases upon climate-index-based stream-flow forecasts. Within the DS tool this will be coordinated with the analysis and the post doc of stakeholder characteristics, since the point of the DS tool is to spell out clearly the implications for the suite of water users of each of the relevant water policy options. The contractor will lead the quantitative inference from the databases and surveys that will inform the DS tool, so that for very specific policy options a clear estimate of outcomes for all relevant stakeholders can be calculated. The contractor will also lead for the development of the DS tool itself and coordinate its use in the game and scenario exercises jointly with local policy makers. Building on previous work on use and display of probabilistic information, the contractor will lead the creation of an interactive interface (funded outsider of this proposal but designed within it) that permits local policy makers and user representatives, and eventually participants in the water allocation seminars, to see in real-time the impacts on all stakeholder of leading policy options. The project investigators will analyze the impacts of shifts in water allocation and reservoir system operation in the two largest and most populated water basins (Jaguaribe and Metropolitano) in the state of Cear in northeast Brazil. The researchers will concentrate on the variation in benefits and costs across the wide range of stakeholders who live in these basins that are prone to recurrent, multi-year droughts; they will focus on the potential roles for climate information and for participatory decision-making. Developing an understanding of how proposed shifts in water resource management will affect the residents in different scenarios will help local policy makers formulate equitable and efficient policy. The investigators will work with local policy makers to develop and test decision support tools. They will employ a variety of techniques including ethnographic and survey methods, analysis of existing data sets, quantitative inference and modeling to develop a decision tool to inform policy choice. The University of Miami is taking the lead in the design and testing of the survey instrument and in conducting the ethnographic fieldwork. Columbia University is helping with design of the survey instrument and also supporting the ongoing refinement of the reservoir release regime modeling that will be used later in the project. DELIVERABLES: 1) Progress Report - due six (6) months after effective date of contract. 2) Final Report - due twelve (12) months after effective date of contract. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE: Twelve (12) months.