Economic analysis of access applications

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) is seeking a UK-based consultancy service to provide economic analysis for four track access applications under the Railways Act 1993. The selected consultant will be responsible for conducting not primarily abstractive (NPA) tests, evaluating absolute revenue abstraction from existing operators, and assessing the financial viability of applicants through reviews of business plans and profit and loss forecasts. Key deliverables include demand and revenue forecasts and detailed analysis reports, with a specific requirement for the use of MOIRA 2 software and adherence to the passenger demand forecasting handbook (PDFH). The contract is estimated to run from November 9, 2026, to November 8, 2027, with a budget between £85,000 and £95,000. Payment is structured based on the delivery of final reports, with 50% of the fee due upon completion of applications 1 and 2, and 25% each for applications 3 and 4. Mandatory requirements for bidders include membership in the Rail Delivery Group’s passenger demand forecasting scheme and possession of Cyber Essentials or ISO27000 certification. Award decisions will be based on a weighted evaluation of methodology, delivery, experience, and cost, each accounting for 25% of the total score.