D--CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION MODEL - EXTENSION VENTANA SYSTENS, INC.

Special Notice of Intent to Award a Sole Source Procurement THIS IS NOT A REQUEST FOR QUOTE. THIS IS A NOTICE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENT TO ISSUE A SOLE SOURCE AWARD. This Notice is to announce that the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) is proposing to negotiate a contract with Ventana Systems, Inc. on a sole source basis. This requirement is for a for refinement of a complex systems model and flight simulator for chronic wasting disease that integrates social, political, and ecological components in the system into a single framework. The proposed action is for services for which the Government intends to solicit and negotiate with only one source under the authority FAR 13.106-1(b)(1). The reason justifying this sole source procurement is that the Government believes only one responsible source can provide the services that will satisfy the agency's requirement. Background: Refinement of management flight simulator for deer health and chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin is needed by the USGS National Wildlife Health Center. The proposed contractor, Ventana Systems, Inc previously developed the initial Monte Carlo simulation model upon which this work will be based. Ventana Systems, Inc uses the proprietary software Vensim and Ventity required to perform the required complex system analyses and simulation models. Model development requires use the Ventana interactive knowledge synthesis process and their propriety software to integrate the scientist and stakeholder knowledge into causal loop diagrams that describe the key components, linkages, and driving forces of forest health. Performance Work Statement 1.0 Introduction and Background The mission of the USGS-National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) is to serve the nation and its natural resources by providing sound science and technical support, and to disseminate information to promote science-based decisions affecting wildlife and ecosystem health. Wildlife health is inextricably linked to ecological, social, economic, and cultural factors, and efforts to understand wildlife health problems or apply management interventions to improve wildlife health must take into account this broad range of interconnected factors. This complexity is particularly evident for wildlife diseases such as chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids, for which natural resource managers must make evidence-based decisions that balance interests of a wide variety of stakeholders with the interests of the wildlife, environment, and other natural resources they are tasked with managing. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) has engaged NWHC to help with a science-based approach for managing CWD that accounts for stakeholder perspectives and decision-making limitations. To provide this service, it is critical that NWHC refine user-friendly management simulator that to allow agency staff and stakeholder the opportunity to adjust parameters and examine scenario outcomes. Due to constraints in currently available management options we also need to add additional parameters to a previously developed model that simulates the impact of deer and disease management on ecosystem health while accounting for sociopolitical constraints acting on this issue. 2.0 Scope The Contractor will create a user-friendly management flight simulator from a previously developed Monte Carlo simulation model to allows managers to identify and evaluate optimal management strategies for CWD. The contractor will work with NWHC to conduct team and individual meetings with key state agency staff to discuss the social, economic, and political factors affecting decision making for CWD. The contractor will work with NWHC to conduct virtual workshops to gather information on the effect of deer and disease management on forest ecosystem dynamics. A participatory modeling process will be used to engage with stakeholder groups and experts in CWD, social science, and deer and forest health to integrate existing knowledge of these factors into previously developed causal maps and associated mathematical models to describe the impact of these factors on CWD prevalence. Products will be developed using proprietary software Vensim and Ventity and knowledge synthesis process, to produce a systems model that incorporates the impact decision making and ecosystem health on CWD outcomes in Wisconsin. 3.0 Applicable Documents N/A 4.0 Technical Requirements Specifications: The Contractor will be responsible for the following technical services and products: 1. Workshops i. The Contractor will facilitate 2-4 remote data gathering and participatory modeling workshops via videoconferencing or in-person meetings that will include key experts in human dimensions and WDNR managers. The Contractor will use their unique knowledge synthesis process to elicit key information from workshop participants to incorporate these factors into the CWD Monte Carlo simulation developed in 2021. ii. The Contractor will facilitate 2-4 remote data gathering and participatory modeling workshops via videoconferencing or in-person meetings that will include key experts in forest and vegetation health. The Contractor will use their unique knowledge synthesis process to elicit key information from workshop participants to include impacts of these factors into the CWD Monte Carlo simulation model developed in 2021. 2. Systems mapping i. Creation of a series of causal loop diagrams and system maps that describes additional factors affecting decisions about deer management and forest and vegetation health as apply to CWD management in Wisconsin that were not included in 2021 products. 3. Model development i. Refinement of a dynamic mathematical model to include information on decision-making, forest and vegetation health and their effects on CWD prevalence in Wisconsin. ii. The use of proprietary software Vensim and Ventity to create a desktop dashboard tool showing multiple aspects of the system allowing users to explore and operate the model 4. Management flight simulator i. Develop a user-friendly interface for the CWD Monte Carlo simulation developed in 2021. ii. Interface should include chart outputs that compare multiple scenarios for a single variable iii. Slider and checkbox controls with tooltips iv. Sharing capability for scenarios Evaluation criteria: NWHC staff will be working closely with the Contractor throughout the course of the contract and will be periodically evaluating the quality and timeliness of the Contractor's work. Acceptance criteria: Contractor performance shall be determined based on completion of deliverables within the agreed-upon time frame. 5.0 Deliverables Products: 1. Causal loop diagrams and system maps that describes the social, economic, and political factors affecting decisions about deer management and forest and vegetation health as they apply to CWD management in Wisconsin. 2. Metamodel to identify the significant social and ecological drivers influencing management decisions and the impact vegetation on deer populations, highlight feedback mechanisms within the system, elucidate processes that are constraining the system, and discover potential new management actions or novel ways to implement established CWD prevention and control practices. 3. User-friendly interface for simulator tool, developed in one of Ventana's simulation packages (Vensim or Ventity). Tool must allow managers and stakeholders to compare and share scenarios for managing CWD under different social and biological constraints. All software and model code will be free of malicious code such as viruses, Trojan horse programs, worms, spyware, etc. This is a sole source notice published for informational purposes only and not a request for competitive quotes. Therefore, no solicitation document exists for this requirement. However, all responsible parties interested in responding to this notice are invited to submit a capability statement by the time and date specified in this notice that provides sufficient details for consideration by the Government, via email to: contact@example.gov. The determination not to compete the contract based on the responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. Phone calls will not be accepted in response to this notice. All information submitted should support the offeror's capability to provide the services required and shall be furnished at no cost or obligation to the Government. Responses must be in writing and must provide clear and concise documentation indicating an offeror's bona fide capability to provide these services. Verbal responses are not acceptable and will not be considered. The Government reserves the right to cancel this requirement.