Nuclear Explosion Monitoring (NEM) Research Scientific Solutions

SECTION 1 - DISCLAIMER This Request for Information (RFI) is issued for MARKET RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY to explore the market capabilities and solutions to support the Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Geo-Space Division (AFRL/RVB) Nuclear Explosion Monitoring (NEM) program desire to form a consortium-like teaming arrangement concept made of a Prime contractor and a subset of Subcontractors to carry out fundamental and advanced research that will accelerate development of decisive mission capabilities in battlespace awareness. It is not a Request for Proposal (RFP), Request for Quote (RFQ), Invitation for Bid (IFB), request for white papers, or any obligation on the part of the Government to acquire products or services. Responses to this RFI are not offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. Any and all costs associated with responding to this RFI will be solely the respondent's expense and will not be reimbursed by the Government. Information provided by respondents MAY be used by Government in acquisition planning and may eventually be considered in future solicitations. Respondents should mark any proprietary information included in their response. DO NOT submit any classified materials. Not responding to this RFI does not preclude participation in any future solicitations. If a solicitation is released, it will be synopsized in the applicable Government wide Point of Entry. It is the responsibility of the potential respondents to monitor these sites for additional information pertaining to this requirement. SECTION 2 - PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Geo-Space Division (AFRL/RVB) Nuclear Explosion Monitoring (NEM) program is seeking sources capable of supporting the program's fundamental and advanced research that will accelerate development of decisive mission capabilities in battlespace awareness. Topics of particular interest include advances in prediction of the generation of seismic waves and other geophysical signals by explosions, in propagation effects on those signals, and in the subsequent analysis of all signal and measurement types relevant to improving event location, discrimination, and/or yield estimation. For efficient execution purposes, AFRL/RVB is particularly interested in the ability of a Prime contractor to support the programs requirements through the formation of consortium-like teaming arrangements with the Prime contractor as a lead over several Subcontractors. SECTION 3 - CURRENT TOP PROGRAM PRIORITIES Seismic Source Physics There is particular interest in methods of determining depth (to within tens of meters) for shallow and very shallow events. There is interest in predictions of the generation of seismic signals, from all shallow source types, that may be used for low yield estimation and/or discrimination. Also of interest are (a) physical understanding of the dependence of seismic source generation, especially for low yield explosions, on emplacement conditions (depth, scaled depth, decoupling, material properties, pre-stress, and local structure/topography); (b) hypothesis tests of proposed mechanisms for waveform characteristics; (c) investigations intended to distinguish between feasible source mechanisms rather than assess the feasibility of a single mechanism. Studies may utilize historical nuclear and/or chemical explosion data, numerical simulations, and/or new laboratory or field experiments. Velocity, Attenuation, and Full Waveform Earth Models There is strong and particular interest in improved prediction of full seismic waveforms, phase amplitudes, and travel times at local and regional distances. Challenges of interest include (a) local/regional attenuation and scattering models, with emphasis on their ability to match observed amplitudes of Pn, Pg, Sn, and Lg phases and their codas; b) prediction of observed amplitudes and dispersion of surface waves; (c) assessment of the extent and effects of censoring and development and application of appropriate methods to address censored data. Methods of interest include (1) models that fit multiple datasets (e.g., body wave and surface wave travel times and amplitudes); (2) utilization of full waveforms and finite-frequency methods; (3) approaches that account for 3D structural effects on amplitudes including blockage, scattering, and focusing/defocusing. In all cases the potential to improve predictions that affect location, discrimination, and/or yield estimation, and robust estimates of confidence, resolution, and variance in the final product that fully account for modeling assumptions and measurement uncertainty are important considerations. Location, Yield Estimation, and Discrimination There is strong and particular interest in innovative methods for (a) estimating yield with low uncertainty for seismic events recorded at local and regional distances; (b) resolving the tradeoff of between yield and source depth through use of seismic and/or nonseismic data; (c) improving characterization of smaller events recorded at local and regional distances including determination of moment tensors and their uncertainties. It is of interest regarding all methods to understand uncertainties and limitations, especially for smaller events recorded at higher frequencies, and including how uncertainty of yield and other source parameters depends on uncertainty of Earth models being used. There is also interest in new understanding of the properties of small seismic events and their seismic waveforms at local and regional distances to significantly improve yield accuracy and discrimination confidence; development of new discriminants and improved methods for combining discriminants is also of interest; and methods to improve location, in particular source depth estimates. Ground Truth for Location and Characterization There is interest in the collection of location and source calibration events in poorly characterized regions of interest. Location calibration should include precise absolute hypocenter and origin time. Calibration events are more valuable when they (a) include depth, origin time and other parameters based on different types of seismic data and independent information to ensure accuracy and make reliable estimates of uncertainty; (b) include source geometry, centroids, moment tensors, and broadband source spectra; (c) have a demonstrated potential to improve location and characterization capability. Compatibility and Connection of Research Elements Beyond the individual elements of applied research, it will be important to link various capabilities for more effective end-to-end use so that together they generate more accurate, reliable, and timely high-fidelity monitoring products than are achieved today. Research to integrate individual research products might be based, at least partly, on funding from direct customers of AFRL or other interested agencies. Nevertheless, the core role of the consortium should include activities to support integrating various elements of individual efforts (e.g., linking 3D nonlinear source simulations to 3D Earth models with well quantified uncertainties to moment tensor inversion workflows to better map distributions of sources that fit observations). The consortium would develop a strategic plan that outlines the research needed to develop and validate a complete system. SECTION 4 - CONSORTIUM STRUCTURE The Prime contractor/awardee will be deemed as the leader of the consortium organization. The consortium leader is expected to promote and coordinate activities that foster wide expertise and a collaborative approach to delivering transformative capabilities in nuclear explosion monitoring. The consortium leader would be responsible for submitting monthly vouchers to the Government and for preparing and submitting quarterly, annual, and final reports on consortium activities. All reports will include requirements fulfilled by consortium partners. The consortium leader will be responsible for leading development of a strategic plan with consortium members and AFRL that will include, at minimum, the following: Identify essential avenues of research, carry out research into various avenues, and integrate research products into an effective system. Hold meetings of researchers from consortium members and from selected other organizations to review research accomplishments and, as necessary, update or revise the strategic plan. Establish a mechanism to share intellectual resources such as models and codes. Some of the resources might be restricted to researchers affiliated with institutions that are members of the consortium, while other resources might be openly available. Organize on-line activities, such as quarterly webinars, to develop shared expertise. Convene short courses or training institutes for early-career researchers affiliated with consortium members and from selected other organizations to develop a collaborative community of the next-generation of explosion monitoring researchers. An entry and exit strategy to facilitate changes to consortium partners/members. The exit mechanism must include formal notification to the leader and AFRL/RV. The entry strategy must be coordinated and agreed upon within the consortium, with final approval by AFRL/RV. SECTION 5 - INDUSTRY DAY The Government intends to hold a public, virtual Industry Day on on Thursday 08 December 2022 from 10:00 AM MDT - 02:00 PM MDT. The Industry Day is intended as an open forum for the Government to answer any questions or comments that may arise prior to responding to this RFI. Participation is not required to be able to respond to this RFI, but it is highly recommended to help the Government interface with industry to better clarify it's needs and desires with respect to this potential effort. To register for the TREMOR Virtual Industry Day the following is required: All interested parties?MUST?complete the registration form (Attachment 1) and return it to Ms. Danyelle Kupferer at contact@example.gov no later than Thursday 01 December 2022. Attendees must be U.S. citizens.? No more than two people per firm will be allowed to attend the Virtual Industry Day; per firm is further defined as division/subsection of a company. To allow discussions at an appropriate level of detail, all non-Government attendees will be required to be U.S. citizens and to supply a copy of their organization's DD2345, - Militarily Critical Technical Data Agreement, no later than?Thursday 01 December 2022?(prior to being confirmed for registration).? Details regarding acquiring and submitting a DD2345 are available on the Defense Logistics Agency/Joint Certificate Program (JCP) website https://www.dla.mil/HQ/LogisticsOperations/Services/JCP/DD2345Instructions/. Registration applicants who do not provide all necessary items by Thursday 01 December 2022?will not be approved to attend this event.? (Registration Forms are attached). Approved attendees will receive a zoom link via email. SECTION 6 - RESPONSES Suggested content of responses to this RFI: Consortium plans that demonstrate teaming arrangement with: Expertise in the fields involved and identification of likely areas of fruitful research. The prime/lead role for intellectual leadership, rather than merely being a funding pass-through organization. Emphasis on the importance of practical and functional roles for consortium partners that lead to substantive contributions to developing and implementing a strategic plan. A subcontractor proposal process that is broad enough to embrace potential consortium partners with research expertise that is already transformative in technical and topic areas described above. Rough order of magnitude cost estimates for a period of performance of up to 5 years. Including an explicit identification of the percentage rate of pass-through charges. Other non-consortium contractual/agreement mechanisms that could fulfill the Governments requirements. Responses should be limited to 10 pages utilizing size 10 or 12 font. Please submit responses via email to Contract and Technical POCs listed no later than 23 December 2022, 5:00 p.m. Mountain Standard Time to both the Contracting and Technical Points of Contact listed below: CONTRACTING POINTS OF CONTACT (POC) Please direct all Contracting related questions to: Danyelle Kupferer; contact@example.gov Kimerie Smith; contact@example.gov TECHNICAL POINTS OF CONTACT Technical questions regarding this RFI should be submitted by email to: Dr. Megan Flanagan; contact@example.gov Dr. Frederick - Rick Schult; contact@example.gov Dr. Glenn - Eli Baker; contact@example.gov