R -- Research Support on Ensemble Dispersion Modeling

This is a special notice as the Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) intends to negotiate a single source purchase order using Simplified Acquisition procedures with Jerome Heffter, Bethesda, MD, under the authority of 41 U.S.C. 253c(1) as implemented by FAR 6.302-1, Federal Acquisition Circular (FAC) 2005 -07. The NOAA Air Resources Laboratory seeks to acquire technical support services for the processing of a manuscript through the publication process and updating the meteorological data base in a format compatible with the ARL Dispersion Models (see the following Statement of Work). The period of performance for this requirement is expected to be nine months year and the budgeted amount is $15,000. Based on prior NOAA market research, conducted, Jerome Heffter is the only source holding the unique combination of experience, skills, and abilities to make changes to the manuscript. Notwithstanding the Government's intent to negotiate this requirement with Jerome Heffter, under the authority of 41 USC253(c)(1), responsible sources may submit a statement of qualifications which, if timely received, will be considered by NOAA. Responses must be received by March 31, 2006. Responses may be faxed to (301) 713-0806 or e-mailed to sandra.shaffner@noaa.gov. ..........Statement of Work: Research Support on Ensemble Dispersion Modeling..... Background: The increasing concern with the release of potentially hazardous materials into the atmosphere highlights the importance of evaluating a forecast of the transport and spread of these materials. The NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) is continuing the development of methods to assess the reliability of dispersion forecasts. Objectives: The project is a continuation of last year's contract which developed statistical techniques for the interpretation of the reliability of ARL atmospheric dispersion model forecasts. A technical paper describing the methodology has been completed, but now must be passed through the peer review processes, which will require further modification and editing. The second part to this contract will be to assemble the most recent compilation of high-resolution meteorological data files generated by NOAA and reformat them for use in ARL dispersion models. This meteorological data base can then be used to continue the reliability testing of ARL dispersion modeling methods. Deliverable A: In collaboration with ARL office staff, the manuscript - Forecast Area Reliability for Airborne Volcanic Ash delivered under NOAA contract EA133R-05-SE-4732, will be modified to make it acceptable for publication in Weather and Forecasting. The first draft has been completed, and it will need to pass through the NOAA review prior to journal submission. After submission the journal's peer reviewers may require further changes before (and if) it is accepted for publication. The contractor will shepherd the paper through this process making changes as necessary. Deliverable B: Transfer, reformat, and archive meteorological data fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) recently compiled at the NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction at ARL for the purpose of re-examining several past tracer experiments conducted by ARL. These experiments include: 1) The Atlantic Coast Unique Regional Atmospheric Tracer Experiment (ACURATE - 1982, 1983); 2) The Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX - 1983); and, 3) The Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX - 1987). The NARR has been derived from the 6-hour 120 km Global Reanalysis (GR) for the period 1979 - 2003. NARR data are available at 3-hour intervals on a 32 km grid at 45 atmospheric layers. The above tracer experiments have been examined in two previous contracts using the coarse resolution GR data. The re-examination in this contract will update the previous research by making use of the finer time and space scale NARR data. The contractor will reformat these data files in a format compatible with ARL dispersion models. Evaluation Criteria: 1) Knowledge of NOAA-NCEP ensemble meteorological products, 2) Experience configuring and running HYSPLIT, 3) Co-author of manuscript - Forecast Area Reliability for Airborne Volcanic Ash, and 4) Previous Journal publications in dispersion modeling and tracer experiment data analysis.