SCAG Aviation Forecast Study

Scope: As required by federal and state regulations, SCAG updates Connect SoCal, the Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) every four years to guide long-range transportation and land use planning across the region. The California Government Code Section 65081.1 requires transportation planning agencies such as SCAG whose service areas include primary air carrier airports to prepare and maintain airport ground access improvement programs as part of their regional transportation planning efforts. The region’s last long-range plan, Connect SoCal 2024, included an Aviation and Airport Ground Access Technical Report that relied on passenger and air cargo forecasts provided directly by individual airports. As SCAG begins development of its next long-range plan, anticipated for adoption in spring 2028, updated aviation forecasts are needed to support and inform airport ground access planning, regional travel demand modeling, and long-range transportation investment decisions.
SCAG is seeking a qualified Consultant to develop regional forecasts of air passenger activity and air cargo demand for the commercial service airports and the two air cargo airports within the SCAG region. The study will be focused on the region’s eight commercial service airports that provide scheduled service: • Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) • Hollywood Burbank Airport (BUR) • Imperial County Airport (IPL) • John Wayne Airport (SNA) • Long Beach Airport (LGB) • Ontario International Airport (ONT) • Palm Springs International Airport (PSP) • San Bernardino International Airport (SBD)
In addition, the study will include consideration of the region’s two air cargo airports that play a significant role in regional goods movement: March Inland Port (RIV) in Riverside County and Southern California Logistics Airport (VCV) in San Bernardino County. These facilities are included in the air cargo components of the study only; air passenger analyses remain limited to the eight commercial service airports.
Commercial service airports are the primary generators of regional air passenger and air cargo activity, and their ground access demands have the most significant and direct implications for the regional surface transportation network. General aviation and reliever airports, while important components of the regional aviation system, serve fundamentally different functions — primarily supporting private, recreational, corporate, and small charter aviation— and generate comparatively limited regional ground access demand. Accordingly, general aviation airports are not included in the demand forecast; however, the study includes a system-level overview of general aviation activity and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) readiness for regional context. Detailed technical AAM planning is being addressed through SCAG's separate dedicated study efforts. The consultant will be responsible for conducting four interrelated tasks: (1) conducting an existing conditions assessment of the region's commercial service airports — including governance, operations, ground access, and passenger travel behavior — together with a review of relevant aviation forecasting literature, FAA guidance, and airport planning resources; (2) documenting current regional aviation forecasting practices and coordination efforts to identify gaps and opportunities; (3) developing regional aviation demand forecasts for passenger volumes (million annual passengers) and air cargo total tonnage; and (4) recommending strategies to improve coordination and consistency in aviation forecasting and to support airport ground access planning for future long-range plan updates.
Notes: Please review entire RFP.
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