Enhancing the Allowance for Insurance Fund Loss Analysis

FCSIC has developed an Allowance for Insurance Fund Loss Procedure to evaluate the level of risk an insured bank poses to the Insurance Fund. FCSIC employs a risk matrix that contains general measures, financial ratios, and thresholds for assessing insurance risk. The risk matrix is divided into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk categories. Any System bank that breaches a medium- or high-risk threshold is closely scrutinized to determine whether a loss to the Insurance Fund is probable and can be reasonably estimated. System bank losses could originate from investments, individual borrower loans and/or association direct notes. The probability of bank default related to any of these asset classes is generally very low. However, some associations are very large and a large association failure may cause its funding bank to default on its insured debt, exposing the Insurance Fund to losses. The following tasks will be required: Task 1: Review FCSIC's Allowance for Insurance Fund Loss Procedure, Evaluate and opine on the appropriateness of the insurance risk matrix thresholds, and Develop enhancements to the current methodology for determining when a loss to the Insurance Fund is probable. Task 2: Develop a high-level project plan for creating a model that computes a probability of default for each System bank and association, and Develop a high-level project plan for building out a loss given default rating system for the banks and associations in the System. Additional advice and analytical support related to FCSIC's risk management process may be requested.