The U.S. Department of Education (Department), Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development (OPEPD), Budget Service Cost Estimation and Analysis Division (CEAD) is responsible for projecting costs for the Department's student aid programs, including the Federal Pell Grant, Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL), and Federal Direct Student Loan (FDSL) programs, as well as for assessing the cost implications of various legislative, regulatory, and administrative proposals related to the development of the President's budget. In addition, CEAD is sometimes called upon to develop cost estimates for other Department programs. In developing estimates, CEAD uses statistical cost projection techniques and a variety of data sources, including the Pell Grant merged applicant/recipient file, the National Student Loan Data System, the FFEL guaranty agency tape dump, and a variety of other Department data bases. Data also support the development of assumptions on a wide range of variable factors, such as interest, default, and collection rates, future income streams, program applicant and participation trends, and a wide range of national economic trends. Some of these assumptions are developed by CEAD or other Department sources; others are mandated by the Office of Management and Budget. In the context of its program cost projection responsibilities, CEAD periodically must develop new techniques, revise or enhance existing approaches, and analyze and work with other Department offices to improve underlying data sources and assumptions. CEAD also undertakes a range of original research projects intended to develop improved modeling techniques, identify or develop better sources of data, and explore correlations between program trends and shifts in other Federal programs or the overall economy. While most of CEAD's cost projection work is performed by in-house staff, the division periodically requires contractor support for activities that require specific technical expertise in areas such as: (a) statistical matching; (b) data imputation techniques; and (c) other econometric methods to dynamically age individual-based datasets using incomplete or time-censored data sources. Support would also include recommendations on data sources as well as data collection and analysis techniques. Data sources are expected to include, but not be limited to, the National Student Loan Data System, postsecondary studies conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics, and program resources such as the Direct Loan servicing and student aid application processing systems. CEAD is also required to provide senior executives with cost estimates and recommendations to make key funding and policy decisions on extremely short notice to inform ongoing legislative, or regulatory, or policy development activities. It is not unusual for CEAD to be informed of a new initiative and expected to provide definitive estimates and supporting analyses within days and in some cases hours. In supporting these activities, it is imperative that the contractor provides timely and high-quality technical assistance; it is expected that the Project Leader will have established rigorous project management and quality control procedures. The contractor must be available to respond immediately, as deliverables are sometimes required within 24 hours or less of the initial request. The contractor would also be expected to provide ongoing support and maintenance of the Student Loan Model (SLM), which is written in C-sharp and utilizes a Microsoft SQL Server database. The attached Performance Work Statement provides additional information about the proposed contract. Objectives The objectives of this procurement are to provide CEAD with support in performing: 1. Analyses or technical assistance related to new or existing data sources, assumptions, and modeling techniques used in the development of program budget cost estimates. 2. Quick-turnaround analyses in support of administration and congressional student aid policy, legislative, and regulatory initiatives. 3. Maintenance and modification of the SLM as needed by CEAD. The SLM is written in C-sharp and utilizes a Microsoft SQL Server database. The purpose of this Notice is to support market research by the Department for this procurement opportunity. If the Department were to decide to pursue a procurement action, it will issue a subsequent Notice that will issue a formal Solicitation. The Solicitation will most likely include a small number of sample tasks that interested parties will be asked to respond to with technical solutions and pricing. The following represents potential sample tasks for this purpose: Example 1: Adding a Loan Type to the Student Loan Model CEAD uses the SLM to project loan program costs. The SLM aggregates segments of student loans into cells (e.g. dollar value of FFEL Subsidized Stafford loans taken out for enrollment at a proprietary school in the fiscal year 2000) and calculates loan activity for these cells using pre-determined assumptions (which are also calculated based on aggregated data). The SLM provides estimates for all types of loans provided to borrowers through the Direct Loan or FFEL programs. It is possible that new types of loans may be added to the programs and, consequently, CEAD would need to be able to estimate the cost of these new types of loans. Contractor support would be required in updating the SLM to add an additional loan type in order to generate the required cost estimates. Example 2: Predicting Receipt Probabilities for Newly Eligible Pell Applicants CEAD uses a micro-simulation model to project future Pell Grant program costs. The basis for the model is a sample of the merged Pell applicant/recipient file from the previous award year. Often proposals are made to alter the Pell formula or maximum award level which results in previously ineligible students becoming eligible to receive a Pell Grant. Contractor support would be required to estimate the probability that these newly eligible students would become a recipient; and given that a student is a recipient the probability of being a full recipient, of receiving more than half, but less than the full scheduled award, of receiving half of the scheduled award, and of receiving less than half of the scheduled award. The contractor shall use the applicant/recipient file as a base to predict these probabilities. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE The Department anticipates a period of performance that will include a 12 month base period and four (4) 12 month option periods that will be exercised at the sole discretion of the Department. INSTRUCTIONS TO INTERESTED PARTIES Interested parties are requested to submit capability statements that are customized to meet the operational requirements summarized herein. The Department is not interested in receiving capability statements that simply describe the contractor's general capabilities. The Department is only interested in receiving capability statements that demonstrate a proven capability to perform the specific functions described herein. Customized capability statements should be limited to 10 pages and should not include detailed resumes. Interested parties who desire to describe key staff may do so through the use of brief cameo resumes that will be included in the 10 page limit. The Department has a preference for small business set-asides, particularly with Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Businesses (SDVOSBs) and HUBZone Small Businesses (HUBZones) but has not yet determined if this procurement opportunity will be set aside for small businesses. It is conducting this market research, in part, to determine if any type of set-aside is appropriate. Interested parties should also provide the following information: 1. Business size and any specific socio-economic small business categories for which it meets the established federal government criteria. 2. Any relevant General Service Administration (GSA) Federal Supply Schedule (FSS) contracts that may be used for this purpose. 3. Any other GWACs that may be used for procurements such as this one. Interested parties are requested to submit their responses to this Sources Sought Notice on or before 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, January 22, 2015. Responses to this Notice should be submitted to Kelsey Reese at kelsey.reese@ed.gov with cc to Alice Mihill at alice.mihill@ed.gov. THIS IS NOT A REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS AND IS INTENDED SOLELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF CONDUCTING MARKET RESEARCH. ANY INTERESTED PARTIES THAT PLAN TO SUBMIT A FORMAL PROPOSAL WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL A FORMAL RFP OR RFQ IS ISSUED IN ORDER TO DO SO.
