Predictive Modeling for Unrated Carriers

The U.S. Department of Transportation Volpe National Transportation Systems Center is seeking a Firm Fixed Price contract to develop and validate a predictive actuarial model for assigning Interim Risk Ratings to unrated Mexican-domiciled carriers. This model will serve as a statistically valid proxy for FMCSA safety ratings to identify risk pools and prevent cabotage. The project leverages proprietary AI to analyze non-traditional leading indicators, such as crash scores, chameleon carrier identifiers, MCS-150 filing accuracy, and driver out-of-service rates, to generate a weighted GAP Score on a scale of 0 to 100. Key deliverables include multi-source data aggregation, the development of a scoring algorithm, and monthly status reports and teleconferences. The procurement is identified as a sole source justification for Bluewire, a small business, based on the technical uniqueness of its predictive innovation. Performance will take place in Cambridge, Massachusetts, with all deliverables submitted electronically. Post-award administration requires the use of the DELPHI/iSupplier system for electronic payment requests. The contract incorporates comprehensive FAR and TAR clauses regarding cybersecurity, information safeguarding, and domestic preferences, including the Buy American Certificate and prohibitions on contracting with entities related to Iran. Proposals were due by March 26, 2026, for submission to Contracting Officer Karen Marino.