B--Intent to Sole Source with The Dupuy Institute for Casualty Estimate in the Iraq War

GovWorks on behalf on the Center for Army Analysis intends on awarding a sole source contract to The Dupuy Institute (TDI) for the below listed requirement. CAA is acquiring services to produce an estimate of the possible intensity and duration of a guerilla war In Iraq. Intensity will be measured in terms of "blue side" (intervening forces) losses. As such, it will serve to provide a casualty estimate for such a war. Since this estimate will also address duration of the conflict, this effort may serve as a basis for doing cost estimation. This project will also attempt to address projected force sizes for such a war. The focus of the research is to examine casualties from various guerilla conflicts in the 20th century, including but not limited to Indonesian War of independence, Greek Civil War, Indochina War, Malaysian Insurrection, Mau Mau Revolt, Cypriot EOKA Insurgency. The award will have four tasks and a final report. The focus of the research is to examine casualties from various guerilla conflicts in the 20th century. TASK 1, Conduct a survey of strengths, losses, and duration of a number of guerilla wars in the past. TASK 2, Collect statistical data about force strengths and losses, assembled on a monthly or more detailed basis. Determine the patterns of losses in the various wars examined, including the degree of variation in casualties from month to month. TASK 3, Determine if casualties tend to peak at certain points during the course of the operations; and whether one can determine by comparisons of Iraq data to some or all of the other operations, if the casualties in Iraq will decline over time, increase over time, or remain at a steady state. TASK 4, Assemble basic narratives of each of the guerilla wars in an attempt to identify those major events or turning points in each of the wars that resulted in a downturn or upturn in the casualty patterns. This project will provide unique insights to the Army leadership and to the analytical community casualty estimation in guerilla conflicts, and specifically the Iraq war. TDI will provide a final report at the end of this effort. It will consist of seven major sections: Introduction and background, General Description of various guerilla conflicts, Statistical data and analysis of casualties in guerilla conflicts, Detailed description of casualties in guerilla conflicts, Brief Description of the Iraq war; Detailed description of casualties in the Iraq guerilla war, and Conclusions. TDI is a Non-Profit institution and the only known provider of scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The use of TDI in a sole source contract is in accordance with FAR 6.302-1. TDI has been chosen because of previous efforts that have been completed by TDI, their expertise in the field, and their availability to complete the project in the short time period necessary for the analysis project. The anticipated award date is August 23, 2004 and the total project length is estimated at 141 days. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. Any questions regarding this effort should be directed to Sarah Roper at +1 (555) 000-0000, or by email at contact@example.gov.